二氧化碳、温室效应和全球变暖：从Arrhenius和 Callendar的开创性工作到今天的地球系统模型

非律 ·安, 艾德 ·霍, 汤姆 斯·
美国华盛顿自然研究所

摘要

根据最先进的地球系统模型（ESM）的整体平均结果，预计21世纪期间的气候变暖将在1.0到3.7℃之间，
具体取决于未来的温室气体排放量。考虑到气候系统的复杂性，这些预测有多可靠？气候研究的早期历史提供了对
回答这个问题所需的理解和科学的洞察。我们检查了Svante Arrhenius（1859-1927）和Guy Stewart Callendar（1898-
1964）开发的行星能量预算的数学量化，并构建了后者的经验近似值，我们证明它在回顾性预测整个过程中的全球变
暖方面是成功的二十世纪的。该近似值随后用于计算21世纪气候变暖对大气温室气体增加的反应，预测温度升高是
由一组ESM产生的结果的下限（如政府间专家组的最新评估中所述）气候变化）。这个结果可以解释如下。气候系
统在概念上很复杂，但其核心是辐射传输的物理定律。这种基本的或“核心”物理在数学上计算起来相对简单，如
Callendar的计算所示，导致基线变暖的定量预测。ESM不仅包括物理核心，还包括气候反馈，这些反馈将不确定性
引入预测的幅度，但不包括符号：正（变暖的放大）。因此，ESM对世纪末全球变暖的预测从根本上是值得信赖的：基
于众所周知的辐射传输物理学的定量稳健基线变暖，以及由于气候反馈导致的额外变暖。因此，这些预测提供了一个
令人信服的案例，即全球气候将继续经历显着变暖，以应对不断向大气排放的二氧化碳和其他温室气体。

关键词

温室效应；全球变暖；地球系统模型

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