农业用地和社会生态系统的可持续性

迭戈 ·洛, 克尔 斯滕, 米歇 尔·
农业科学研究所

摘要

在人类消费农产品的推动下，农业用地扩张和集约化是环境退化和生物多样性保护的主要威胁之一。土地
退化最终会通过减少生态系统服务来阻碍农业生产。因此，设计可行的土地使用政策是一项关键的可持续性挑战。
我们开发了一个模型来描述人类人口学和景观构成的耦合动态，同时在农业扩张和集约化之间进行权衡。我们对土
地利用策略进行建模，从低强度农业和高人均土地转化率到高强度农业和低人均土地转化率；并探索它们对耦合的
人地系统的长期动态的影响。从长远来看，我们寻求描述策略的可行性；并了解由于资源稀缺而可能导致大规模土
地退化和人口崩溃的机制。我们表明，土地利用战略的可行性很大程度上取决于土地的内在恢复率。我们还发现，
当农业集约化没有伴随土地转换的充分减少时，就会发生社会生态崩溃。基于这些发现，我们强调了不知情的土地
利用规划的危险以及预防行为对土地利用管理和土地利用政策设计的重要性。

关键词

社会生态模型；土地利用规划；农业集约化；农业扩张；社会生态崩溃；可持续性政策

参考

[1]Alcott B, Giampietro M, Mayumi K, Polimeni J.

The Jevons Paradox and the Myth of Resource Efficiency

Improvements. Routledge; 2012.

[2]Baeten L, Velghe D, Vanhellemont M, Frenne PD,

Hermy M, Verheyen K. Early trajectories of spontaneous

vegetation recovery after intensive agricultural land use.

Restor Ecol. 2010;18:379–386. doi: 10.1111/j.1526-

100X.2009.00627.x.

[3]Balmford B, Green RE, Onial M, Phalan B, Balmford A.

How imperfect can land sparing be before land sharing is more

favourable for wild species? J Appl Ecol. 2019;56(1):73–84.

doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13282.

[4]Barrett S, Dasgupta A, Dasgupta P, Adger WN,

Anderies J, van den Bergh J, Bledsoe C, Bongaarts J, Carpenter

S, Chapin FS, Crépin A-S, et al. Social dimensions of fertility

behavior and consumption patterns in the anthropocene. Proc

Natl Acad Sci. 2020;117(12):6300–6307. doi: 10.1073/

pnas.1909857117.

[5]Board on Environmental Change and Society,

Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social

Sciences and Education, Board on Life Sciences, Division

on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council. Can

Earth’s and Society’s Systems Meet the Needs of 10 Billion

People? Summary of a Workshop. National Academies Press

(US); Washington (DC): 2014.

[6]Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) , 2009, FAO

and traditional knowledge: The linkages with sustainability,

food security and climate change impacts, United Nations,

Rome.

[7]Bachtiar P., Haleegoah J., Khudaverdyan S., Kunzheng

C., Perez M.R. & Serapelwane T.V., 2003, To be or not to be:

cropping in the Ditsobotla and Mafikeng districts, Working

Document Series 111, International Centre for Development

Oriented Research in Agriculture (ICRA) and Department

of Agriculture Conservation and Environment, NWP, South

Africa.

[8]Benhin J.K.A., 2008, ‘South African crop farming

and climate change: An economic assessment of impact’,

Global Environmental Change 18(4), 666–678. https://doi.

org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.06.003

[9]Botlhoko G.J. & Oladele O.I., 2013, ‘Factors affecting

farmers’ participation in agricultural projects in Ngaka Modiri

Molema district North West province, South Africa’, Journal

of Human Ecology 41(3), 201–206.

[10]Creswell J.W., 2009, ‘Research design: Qualitative,

quantitative and mixed methods approaches’, 3rd edn., Sage,

Thousand Oaks, CA.